The Blog

Archives

Browse by Date

Browse by Category

Archive for March, 2012

Predictions that are Sure to be Wrong

In my apparent quest to challenge everything the sports guys on Boston.com are saying, I’m going to take their “Red Sox Stat Projections for 2012″ and do my own version. If nothing else, its a good spot to predict stuff and then look back at the end of the season. Because I do love being wrong.

Adrian Gonzalez – 35 homers
Under
 - He’s not trying to hit home runs. It just happens sometimes. He can’t help it that the lasers that come off his bat don’t always have the proper trajectory. He’ll come close to 35 though.

David Ortiz – 30 homers
Under
 - You never can tell, but I see 30 as a stretch this season. At this stage in his career, that’s not an overly bad thing Ortiz is a streaky hitter, and if he gets into a funk early, he won’t come close.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 25 homers
Under
 - If Ellsbury hits more than 25 home runs this season, I’ll be surprised. Last season wasn’t a fluke, but the man is a speedy slap hitter who isn’t built to hit bombs.

Carl Crawford – .275 batting average
Over
 - I won’t say way over, but I do think he’s going to have a comeback season. He started to hit better towards the tail end of last season, and he came up big in a couple games throughout the year. Hopefully the fans will remember those moments instead of the other ones, and show some support, which will be the difference between an average season and a great season. But who am I kidding; we’re in Boston.

Jon Lester – 200 strikeouts
Over –
He had 225 k’s in the two seasons previous to last year, both of which he pitched in more innings than last season. The Sox need Lester to be good this year, and he will anchor this staff.

Keep reading »

American League Preview 2012

Boston.com today had a ‘Rate the American League’ feature on their homepage. It was harder than I thought.

1) Texas Rangers
2) Anaheim Angels
3) New York Yankees
4) Detroit Tigers
5) Boston Red Sox
6) Tampa Bay Rays
7) Cleveland Indians
8) Toronto Blue Jays
9) Kansas City Royals
10) Oakland Athletics
11) Minnesota Twins
12) Baltimore Orioles
13) Seattle Mariners
14) Chicago White Sox

Being the Red Sox fan I am, I’m choosing to ignore a lot of the media hype and common (mis)conception that the Sox will be bad this year and regress to a miserable point. They suffered a historic collapse at the absolute worst times, and they followed it up with an odd offseason, so naturally the Boston media has condemned them to finishing in 3rd place behind the Rays and Yankees (GASP) and falling apart due to Bobby Valentine’s “causing distractions by speaking too openly with the media”. Interesting how that’s already set in stone.

You can almost relate this offseason to the way that the Patriots and Bill Belichick run their offseasons; making a bunch of little moves that fill depth. That’s what they did in the outfield wit Cody Ross (who’s having a MONSTER spring) and Ryan Sweeny (who’s not having a monster spring). Overall, the Sox did much more with their offense than the media is giving them credit for, and it’s going to put them at the top of the AL again, despite how supposedly bad the pitching is.

It obviously doesn’t matter that Jon Lester went 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 182 k’s, Josh Beckett was 13-7 in 30 starts, posting a decent 2.89 ERA and holding opposing batters to a .211 avg, and Clay Bucholtz, who only pitched half the year, had a 3.48 ERA with 6 wins. Or that the Sox have about eight guys that could fill the last two spots, ranging from Alfredo Aceves, who’s proven himself to be a reliable starter, to Daniel Bard (who I personally don’t want to see in the starting rotation, but could succeed. Maybe), to Felix Doubront, who’s only 24 and more than deserves to get a spot on the rotation. And don’t forget, Daisuke Matsuzaka should be back sometime during the season, and Bobby V managed for a couple seasons in Japan and could provide a level of comfort for the injury-riddled $50 million man.

Barring injuries, this could be one potent pitching staff. Of course, there could be injuries. Or I could just have an addled brain. But either way, I’ve gotta be optimistic, especially after the way last year ended.

Anyway, some brief notes about the rest of my rankings and some bold predictions:

Keep reading »